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Monday, March 24, 2008

Now it's the Electoral College that Matters

The new rational from the Clinton campaign that she should be the nominee instead of Obama is that she carried the states that have more votes in the Electoral College. Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN)(Clinton supporter) tells the New York Times:

“So who carried the states with the most Electoral College votes is an important factor to consider because ultimately, that’s how we choose the president of the United States,”

The Times says:

"So far, Mrs. Clinton has won states with a total of 219 Electoral College votes, not counting Florida and Michigan, while Mr. Obama has won states with a total of 202 electoral votes."

The Electoral College obviously doesn't count in the Democratic primary as they choose their delegates with a wacky formula combining delegates and superdelegates and not counting states if they behave in a way they don't like (MI & FL).

There are several flaws with this argument, the worst being that those "traditionally blue" states that Clinton has won (CA, NY, etc.) will go blue this fall whether Obama or Clinton is the nominee. They're not going to jump ship suddenly because John McCain is on the ballot. What matters is pulling in those red states and turning them blue (MO, TN, etc.) Shouldn't the reverse argument be made? Obama can bring in those red states in the general election so he should be the nominee?

What do you think the argument will be tomorrow?

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