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Tuesday, April 22, 2008

First Exit Poll Data inPennsylvania

From DailyKos.com:

Via CNN:
Seniors: 61C, 38O
White male: 55C, 45O
Blacks: 8C, 92O

42 percent say US is in serious recession.
2 1/2 hours from polls closing. Will update as new numbers come in.

Update: Exit poll data is somewhat good at gauging demographic trends, NOT for predicting the final results. I won't run "final result" numbers since they're almost always wrong

From CBS News:

CBS News early exit polls show that most Pennsylvania Democrats made up their minds a long time ago, while only 23 percent decided within the last week.

As has been the case in other states, the economy was the most important issue to voters, with 54 percent of Pennsylvania Democrats describing it as such, and most Democrats saying that the economy is in a recession. The war in Iraq and health care were the other top issues to voters.

Voters' loyalty to their chosen candidate was high, as more than six in ten (64 percent) Clinton voters said they would not be satisfied if Obama ended up the Democratic nominee, and more than half of Obama voters (54 percent) said they would not be satisfied if Clinton won the nomination. Overall, 70 percent of Pennsylvania Democrats would be satisfied if Clinton were the nominee, while 64 percent would be satisfied with Obama.

From CNN:

Gun owners, church goers choose Clinton

(CNN) – Hillary Clinton stressed her gun and church-going credentials following Barack Obama's "bitter" comments, and it appears to have paid off.

According to the exit polls, 58 percent of gun owners voted for Clinton while 42 percent went for Obama.

Among Pennsylvania Democrats who attend church at least once a week, Clinton is beating Obama 59 percent to 41 percent.

Pennsylvania Dems think Obama will win

(CNN) – Barack Obama will win the Democratic nomination, a majority of Pennsylvania voters believe.

According to the exit polls, 54 percent of primary voters said Obama will be the party's nominee while 43 percent said Clinton will win.

In what could be a troubling sign, only 38 percent of voters said they'd be satisfied if either candidate was the nominee. Meanwhile 32 percent said they'd be satisfied only if Clinton wins, while 25 percent said they'd be satisfied only if Obama wins.

For the time being at least, the party is sharply divided between these two candidates.

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